By Arnout Nuijt

In recent years, when asked which country would dominate the 21st century, China or the US, I usually replied: the Anglosphere, that discreet pact of five English-speaking countries led by the US, linked by numerous treaties in the field of security, while these countries also share a common history, culture and ethnic origin and are financially and economically intertwined. But Trump’s arrival has turned the world upside down, including relationships within the Anglosphere.

It could hardly be better. The US working together with its closest English-speaking allies Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Great Britain. An alliance that can completely dominate the world stage for the rest of the century, with a combined GDP of USD 35-38 trillion in 2025, a combined population of 487 million (which will grow further due to immigration) and an unparalleled joint military capability (accounting for 44.5% global defence spending in 2020). For (pro-) Western countries around the world, that meant only one thing: to stay close to the countries of the Anglosphere.

The most important cooperation programs and treaties of the Anglosphere are Five-Eyes (exchange of intelligence), NORAD (air defence of North America by Canada and the US jointly), AUKUS (a defence pact between the US, UK and Australia aimed at Asia), in addition to various programs aimed at the standardization of equipment of the five land forces, air forces and navies as well as mutual agreements – among other things – on border control, electronic communications, immigration, passports and technological cooperation.

In short, we see a hard core of like-minded countries with a formidable combined capacity in virtually every aspect of the security spectrum, but invariably led by the US. Although the term Anglosphere is hardly ever mentioned openly or used in official documents, these are the countries with which the US has usually – in varying compositions – worked as close as possible in most conflicts since the Second World War. The Anglosphere may be of greater importance to the US than NATO.

But now, while European government leaders are licking their wounds after the first experiences with the new American administration and have to adjust to the likely loss of US protection against Russia, it is also important to look a little further at developments in the rest of the world. Is Trump going to promise Taiwan to China, in order to make eternal peace (and above all to be able to do a lot of business) with China? Widely expected so far among most observers was that Trump would withdraw military assets from Europe and then use them to deter China and help countries such as Taiwan and Japan to better defend themselves.

But for the time being, there are few concrete indications in that direction. On the contrary, the US is going to cut back on defence for five years at 8% per year according to the latest reports. Though some of the money saved could be invested in US defences against China, most of it will go into US anti-missile and US- Mexican border defences. This does not really hint at a vast relocation of the armed forces to Asia, but more at a global retreat and focus on defence of the homeland. In any case, this signal does not bring more deterrence.

Meanwhile, America’s closest allies in the Anglosphere are taking blow after blow. First up was Canada, which was labelled by Trump as the future 51st state of the US almost immediately after his re-election (according to Trudeau, Trump really means what he says). In other words, Canada no longer deserves to be an independent nation and should cease to exist in order to join its southern neighbour. All this because of a lax attitude in the field of border control and a weak defence of the arctic region. Threatened with heavy import duties, Canada was forced by Trump to better secure its borders. The country has been in turmoil ever since and tensions back and forth erupted during an ice hockey match between Canada and the US.

Politically, the Liberal Party of outgoing Prime Minister Trudeau, who had fallen far behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party in the polls for this year’s Canadian elections, suddenly has the attention of voters again. The negative attention for the country from the US, on the other hand, has not done the pro-Trumpian conservatives any good and the party is sinking in the polls. Trump has damaged the US relationship with the most important neighbouring country, while not helping his own political allies in the country. And Trump’s tough stance on Ukraine meant that Canada now accepted an invitation from Macron to participate in the second emergency meeting in Paris last week.

The United Kingdom meanwhile, under the left-wing Labour government of Prime Minister Starmer, is under fire from Trump and other US government members because of overblown woke and anti-Christian British policy. Vance explicitly singled out the country in his speech in Munich. Indeed, you can’t think of greater ideological differences than between the British Labour and Trump’s MAGA governments. Starmer is now rubbing shoulders with the EU again, Brexit or not, and he also sat down at Macron’s table during the emergency meeting last Monday in Paris. Starmer publicly contradicted Trump regarding support for Ukraine and Zelensky’s position.

Trump’s ally in Britain, Nigel Farage’s Reform party, has climbed phenomenally in the polls in recent months and now seems to be (virtually) narrowly the largest party in the country. Farage owes this spectacular rise to a right-wing, almost Trump-like course. But Farage, who is rapidly expanding his Reform party (with now more than 200,000 members), did not wholeheartedly support Trump’s comments towards Zelensky, apparently because, at least according the British Yougov pollster quoted by Unherd, support for Ukraine is also alive among a substantial part of his supporters. In December 2024, Farage clashed already with Elon Musk over the leadership of Reform. Trump, meanwhile, runs the risk of alienating his outpost in the United Kingdom or does that not matter to him at all?

Distant Australia is also preparing for a different geopolitical situation. The country’s government doubts whether it can still rely on protection from the US, while it is also being hit with import duties. Conservative opposition leader Peter Dutton is now distancing himself from Trump. Years ago, under US pressure, Dutton as Minister of Defence broke a huge contract with the French Naval Group for the delivery of no less than twelve Barracuda-class attack submarines. Australia was forced by the US to purchase the same number of (but nuclear-powered) American boats, as part of the AUKUS agreement.

It is now clear that US naval yards are far behind schedule for the delivery of submarines to the US Navy, let alone to the Australian Navy. The question is whether Australia can still count on the American boats at all. If the boats do not come, that will leave a huge hole in Australia’s maritime defences in the future. This week, China made clear what its own capabilities are: a squadron of the People’s Republic’s Navy sailed about 150 nautical miles along the coast near Sydney. The Chinese naval ships then started live fire exercises, which briefly disrupted flight connections between Australia and New Zealand.

There have been no reports or concrete indications yet that the US wants to break its treaties with the Anglosphere countries, but the ideological differences of the MAGA government with the incumbent governments in countries such as the UK and Canada are huge. The UK was specifically mentioned in Vance’s speech as an oppressor of freedom of speech and belief. Vance also had a warning: if you don’t tolerate free speech, then there’s nothing the U.S. can do for your country.

In the coming weeks, we will see how Europe and countries such as Canada and Australia will respond to America’s new foreign policy. Are they going to compromise and partly adapt to Trump or will European leaders turn away from Trump, driven by irritations, personal disgust, ideological disputes or any other inability to do business with him? Cool heads will be needed on all sides.

The Anglosphere, especially AUKUS and Five Eyes, are irreplaceable means in a future confrontation of the West with China and an important building block in the security structure of the US in general. But if Trump abandons the Anglosphere or shows no interest in it, it will become clear that the US is not in the process of building up a firmer military response to China, but is going to withdraw from the rest of the world. And with the US focused on itself and entrenched on the North American continent, Europe will be left to deal with Putin’s Russia and Asia with Xi’s China.

Arnout Nuijt is a geopolitical analyst.

A Portuguese language version was published by Observador of Lisbon.