Beyond the Greek Impasse

By George Friedman The Greek situation — having perhaps outlived the term "crisis," now that it has taken so long to unfold — appears to have finally reached its terminal point. This is, of course, an illusion: It has been at its terminal point for a long time. The terminal point is the juncture where neither … Continue reading Beyond the Greek Impasse

What Brazil needs to really grow

By Solange Monteiro Resilience and flexibility seem to be core beliefs of moderate optimist Paulo Stark, CEO of Siemens Brazil, when he talks about his business and Brazil’s economy. Stark, an engineer who began his career with Siemens more than two decades ago, sees investment intentions being rethought as a result of the escalation of … Continue reading What Brazil needs to really grow

Where does Rio go next?

By Solange Monteiro Rio de Janeiro city celebrates its 450th birthday this month amid questions about what permanent gifts the World Cup, Olympics, and discovery of deep-sea oil will leave for the city. Between announcements of huge investments and ambitious revitalization plans on the one hand and inflation above the national average eroding the purchasing … Continue reading Where does Rio go next?

Job not finished for UK economy, OECD says

The United Kingdom’s economy is projected to expand this year and next, but challenges remain to boost productivity and make future growth more inclusive, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Survey. The Survey, presented in London by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría and UK Chancellor George Osborne, says that annual growth in the UK rose 2.6% … Continue reading Job not finished for UK economy, OECD says

Economic Climate Index for Latin America falls

The Ifo/FGV Economic Climate Index for Latin America (ECI) - developed in partnership between the German Ifo Institute and the FGV taking as a data source the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) – decreased by 6.3%, going to 75 points in January 2015 from 80 in October 2014. The decline stems from worsening of both … Continue reading Economic Climate Index for Latin America falls

Rotterdam still largest European port for China

In 2014, Rotterdam became the first European since the start of the economic crisis in 2008, port to handle more than 3 million TEU (20-foot container units) going to or coming from China. Port of Rotterdam Authority CEO Allard Castelein announced this during the first quarterly meeting of the Rotterdam Port Promotion Council (RPPC). At the … Continue reading Rotterdam still largest European port for China

How to slim your brand portfolio wisely

The world’s largest consumer products companies such as Unilever and Procter & Gamble have recently announced shedding up to hundreds of brands, keeping only the strongest alive to make more profit. But when it comes to brand portfolio, is less really more? While most companies are convinced these big clean-ups result into increased firm value, … Continue reading How to slim your brand portfolio wisely

Brazil’s 2015 economic outlook: Rebalancing will not be easy

By Solange Monteiro Dramatic events in the second half of 2014 transformed the scenario at the turn of the year in Brazil into a big question mark. The fierce presidential race, the deterioration of economic indicators, and allegations of corruption at state-owned oil company Petrobras heightened the already anxious expectations about 2015. Can the course … Continue reading Brazil’s 2015 economic outlook: Rebalancing will not be easy

Brazil Inflation: Nowhere to go but up?

By Thais Thimoteo If in 2013 producers and consumers split the cost of price increases evenly, in 2014 the cost of inflation has fallen squarely on the consumer. Through November 2013 12-month inflation went up to 5.6% as measured by the General Price Index 10 (IGP-10) calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Economics, Getulio Vargas … Continue reading Brazil Inflation: Nowhere to go but up?

Viewing Russia from the inside

By George Friedman Last week I flew into Moscow, arriving at 4:30 p.m. on Dec. 8. It gets dark in Moscow around that time, and the sun doesn't rise until about 10 a.m. at this time of the year — the so-called Black Days versus White Nights. For anyone used to life closer to the … Continue reading Viewing Russia from the inside

The Gold Standard Did Not Cause The Great Depression, Part 1

by Ralph Benko AEI’s James Pethokoukis and National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru — among many others — appear to have fallen victim to what I have called “the Eichengreen Fallacy,” the demonstrably incorrect proposition that the gold standard caused the Great Depression.  This fallacy is at the root of much confusion in the discourse. Both these … Continue reading The Gold Standard Did Not Cause The Great Depression, Part 1

OECD urges Brazil to tackle foreign bribery

Brazil must build on the positive momentum started with its new Corporate Liability Law and its first indictments in one foreign bribery case to investigate and prosecute more proactively foreign bribery. Since Brazil joined the Convention in 2000, of the 14 allegations identified in the report, only five have been investigated and three investigations are … Continue reading OECD urges Brazil to tackle foreign bribery

A glimpse of Brazil after the elections

By João Augusto de Castro Neves of the Eurasia Group Brazil is witnessing one of the most competitive and thrilling presidential elections in nearly a quarter of a century. In the last three months, polls had the three candidates alternating in the lead. Now, with the second-round runoff between President Dilma Rousseff (Workers’ Party, PT) … Continue reading A glimpse of Brazil after the elections

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America Declines 23% in the First Half of 2014

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries that have available data decreased by 23% during the first half of 2014 with respect to the same period last year, reaching a total of $84.071 billion dollars, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reported. On a global level, … Continue reading Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America Declines 23% in the First Half of 2014

Germany Fights on Two Fronts to Preserve Eurozone

By Adriano Bosoni and Mark Fleming-Williams The European Court of Justice announced Sept. 22 that hearings in the case against the European Central Bank's (ECB) bond-buying scheme known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) will begin Oct. 14. Though the process is likely to be lengthy, with a judgment not due until mid-2015, the ruling will … Continue reading Germany Fights on Two Fronts to Preserve Eurozone

OECD recommends how to fight tax avoidance

The OECD released its first recommendations for a co-ordinated international approach to combat tax avoidance by multinational enterprises, under the OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Project designed to create a single set of international tax rules to end the erosion of tax bases and the artificial shifting of profits to jurisdictions to avoid paying … Continue reading OECD recommends how to fight tax avoidance

Global growth continuing at a moderate pace

A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Assessment. While the global recovery continues at a moderate rate, the outlook … Continue reading Global growth continuing at a moderate pace

Spain on the road to recovery, says OECD

Spain is emerging from a protracted recession, marked by a return to moderate growth and rising international competitiveness. Decisive banking and fiscal reforms, coupled with supportive monetary policy from the European Central Bank, have reduced financial tensions and improved public finance. But to ensure that the recovery is sustained and unemployment returns to much lower … Continue reading Spain on the road to recovery, says OECD

Is James Rickards Right About A Coming Monetary Apocalypse?

By Ralph Benko Is a monetary apocalypse imminent? James Rickards, bestselling author of Currency Wars, has a new New York Times bestseller out, about the possible imminent collapse of the dollar: The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System  (Portfolio/Penguin). More interestingly, he writes about what could come next: a golden … Continue reading Is James Rickards Right About A Coming Monetary Apocalypse?

ECLAC adjusts LatAm growth rates

Latin American and Caribbean countries will grow an average of 2.7% in 2014 due to limited dynamism of the region's principal economies, according to new projections from ECLAC. The regional United Nations organization last week released its UpdatedEconomic Overview of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013, which reviews information on the key economic variables of 2013 … Continue reading ECLAC adjusts LatAm growth rates

Brazil’s Next 10 Hottest Business Cities – 2014 Edition

By Arnout Nuijt 2014 EDITION - Ever heard of Uberlândia, Joinville, Ribeirão Preto, Sorocaba or Londrina? Well, you may soon, as they are among Brazil's next generation of big business cities. No doubt the biggest and most important business centres of Brazil are still the megacities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Further afield, … Continue reading Brazil’s Next 10 Hottest Business Cities – 2014 Edition

Six reasons why US capital expenditure is on the rise

In the United States, capital expenditure is lagging the economy as a whole. Some think this is the ‘new normal’. But Robeco’s strategist Peter van der Welle believes there is a strong case for a rebound in investments later this year.  Capital expenditure has been disappointing in recent years. Corporates drastically reduced investments to cut … Continue reading Six reasons why US capital expenditure is on the rise

Why is Brazilian productivity so low?

For decades low productivity has been responsible for the poor performance of Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP). Today, FGV-IBRE's The Brazilian Economy reports, increasing productivity -which rebounded slightly last year but is still far from stellar - is more urgent if the country wants to achieve more robust economic growth without pressure on wages and … Continue reading Why is Brazilian productivity so low?

U.S. Unemployment Will Remain High So Long As The Dollar Remains Wobbly

by Ralph Benko The Republican National Committee recently passed a resolution, by the unanimous vote of its National Committeepeople, calling for the creation of a national Monetary Commission.  This legislation is prime sponsored in the House of Representatives by Joint Economic Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Tx) and in the US Senate by Republican whip John … Continue reading U.S. Unemployment Will Remain High So Long As The Dollar Remains Wobbly

EU maintained trade surplus with Brazil in 2013

EU28 exports to Brazil in 2012 amounted to 39.7 billion euro and imports to 37.4 bn. The EU28 registered a continuous deficit in trade in goods with Brazil up to 2011, with a peak in 2007, turning to a surplus of 2.3 bn in 2012. The first nine months of 2013 confirm the most recent … Continue reading EU maintained trade surplus with Brazil in 2013

Heritage Drafts Steve Moore, Supply Side Visionary, To Fight Team Obama

By Ralph Benko Will America start prospering again — as it has not prospered for over a decade? Likely yes. But not without a fight.  Now that Jim DeMint has raided Steve Moore from the Wall Street Journal that card might be Heritage Foundation vs. the White House. Could be big. John Holdren, now Obama’s … Continue reading Heritage Drafts Steve Moore, Supply Side Visionary, To Fight Team Obama

Has Brazil really entered recession? Then here is what to do

By Arnout Nuijt Positive news about Brazil’s economy is hard to find these days. In fact the bad news is piling up. A recent report by the Financial Times of London, quoting Brazil Central bank figures, suggests the country has entered technical recession more than 7 months ago by shrinking slightly for two consecutive quarters … Continue reading Has Brazil really entered recession? Then here is what to do

LatAm economic climate improves, Brazil’s worsens

The Ifo/FGV Economic Climate Index for Latin America (ECI)  advanced, after having been stable in the last two surveys (July and October 2013). The 8% increase in the ECI (to 95 from 88 points) is explained by both the improvement in assessments of present conditions (PSI) and expectations (EI), but only the latter one went … Continue reading LatAm economic climate improves, Brazil’s worsens

China is the real threat to emerging markets

It has been a rough time for emerging market equities, but only China has the real power to upset the apple cart for investors this year, says Robeco’s chief economist. Rate hikes in countries such as India and Turkey to try to prop up their currencies and cut capital flows have sent stock prices plummeting. … Continue reading China is the real threat to emerging markets

South Africa needs more export competitiveness and regional integration, World Bank reports

Greater export competitiveness and deeper regional integration could help propel South Africa towards faster-growing exports, allowing it to achieve higher, more inclusive, job-intensive growth as laid out in the country’s National Development Plan (NDP) 2030, according to the World Bank's South Africa Economic Update. “Helping South Africa achieve its export potential is essential for rapid … Continue reading South Africa needs more export competitiveness and regional integration, World Bank reports

IMF sees Peru’s economy as high growth leader

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its consultations with Peru this week. Peru’s economy continues to be a leader in high growth and low inflation in the region, which has been achieved through a prudent macroeconomic policy implementation, a far-reaching structural reform agenda and taking advantage of the benign external environment. No least due to … Continue reading IMF sees Peru’s economy as high growth leader

LatAm’s Pacific Alliance highlighted at Davos

A panel entitled The Pacific Alliance Promise was held at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. It was attended by Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, Peru's Prime Minister César Villanueva, and Chilean Finance Minister Felipe Larraín. At the gathering the panelists discussed the challenges of this alliance, formed by … Continue reading LatAm’s Pacific Alliance highlighted at Davos

Brazilian Economy: The Price of Violence

Brazilians see themselves as cheerful, hospitable, and peaceful, yet this picture is contradicted by data on violence and crime. Brazil is the 18th most violent nation in the world, according to the Avante Brasil Institute. The 2013 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) pointed out that insecurity is an obstacle to … Continue reading Brazilian Economy: The Price of Violence

World Bank warns of emerging markets risks

The world economy is projected to strengthen this year, with growth picking up in developing countries and high-income economies appearing to be finally turning the corner five years after the global financial crisis, says the World Bank’s newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report. The firming of growth in developing countries is being bolstered by an … Continue reading World Bank warns of emerging markets risks

A Closer Look at India’s Naxalite Threat

By Fred Burton and Ben West On July 6, the Indian government issued a warning to railroad operators and users after Maoist rebels -- known as Naxalites -- declared a "bandh," a Hindi word meaning stoppage of work, in eastern India. When a bandh is declared by the Naxalites, it carries with it an implied … Continue reading A Closer Look at India’s Naxalite Threat

Three reasons why deflation won’t take hold in the Eurozone

Inflation used to be the main focus for European central bankers’ interest rate policy as prices rose forever upward. Now their main fear as we begin 2014 is the reverse scenario - the risk of deflation. It is potentially a huge problem, as falling prices mean that consumers do not buy goods because they expect them … Continue reading Three reasons why deflation won’t take hold in the Eurozone

NAFTA and the Future of Canada, Mexico and the United States

By Marc Lanthemann The 20th anniversary of NAFTA's implementation on Jan. 1 has revived some of the perennial arguments that have surrounded the bloc since its inception. The general consensus has been that the trade deal was a mixed bag, a generally positive yet disappointing economic experiment. That consensus may not be wrong. The history … Continue reading NAFTA and the Future of Canada, Mexico and the United States

Rediscovering the Americas: The World’s 15 Best Countries for Business in 2014

The US, Germany, Poland and Mexico are among next year’s Best Countries for Business. Rotterdam Week in cooperation with Atlantico Business Development (an international consultancy based in Rotterdam) has selected the best 15 markets of 2014/15 for your direct investment or for exporting your products. This is the first edition of a series of articles … Continue reading Rediscovering the Americas: The World’s 15 Best Countries for Business in 2014

Brazil’s 2014 elections already face headwinds

By Fernando Dantas As Brazil prepares for election year 2014, economic uncertainty is pervasive. It is likely that 2014 will not be as spectacular as 2010, but forecasts of what will actually happen vary considerably. On the negative end, Brazil would encounter a perfect storm that might combine one or more downgrades of its sovereign … Continue reading Brazil’s 2014 elections already face headwinds

Turkish Airlines to set up base in Rotterdam

Turkish Airlines will open a second base in the Netherlands at ‘Rotterdam The Hague Airport’. As of 4 March seven employees of Turkish Airlines will be stationed in Rotterdam to handle the new regular services between Rotterdam and home base Istanbul.  Turkish Airlines has taken a well-advised decision to set up a base in Rotterdam. General … Continue reading Turkish Airlines to set up base in Rotterdam